Friday, March 21, 2014

Updated Prediction app


Over the last few months I have been developing a new application.  It's purpose is to visualize Premier League trends and predictions by leveraging the freakishly awesome D3.js libraries found at  I call the app noise, as it is intended to both counteract the noise associated with sports punditry, while recognizing the inherent complexity of the tracking and measuring team performance and fan engagement. You can view the site here.

I have built two features, with a third feature in the works.  The first is a simple social media tracker (in this case Twitter- I plan to add additional sites such as reddit in the near future). This provides a snapshot of the current volume of information being exchanged concerning a team. 

Additionally I have trained a statistical model to predict the outcome of each match.  The model is built by comparing the home teams home performance: average wins, goals, corners, and shots on target against the away team's away performance across the same metrics.  Additionally I calculate both teams statistics as an expanding average over the season, and a rolling average for the last three games. 

If any one is interested in the model used, or wants to add something to it the code, the project is located on github.